War seldom ends according to a satisfying script. Unconditional surrender—the banner headline of 1945—is a historical rarity, the exception, not the rule. More often hostilities conclude in the gray zone of ceasefires, armistices, and grudging diplomatic arrangements. Israel stands in that gray zone now. Its defensive campaign against Iran and the Iranian proxy network seems to have primarily met its battlefield objectives. From a military standpoint, Iran appears to be defeated. The harder task is to translate that success into a durable peace—without stumbling into George W. Bush 2.0, the grandiose dream of regime change by force.
Iran is not merely a rival pursuing normal state interests. For decades the Islamic Republic has subordinated economic development, and even internal stability, to a revolutionary ambition: the destruction of the Jewish state. Tehran spent treasure and reputation on uranium enrichment and terror franchises when it could have paved roads or built hospitals. That choice shapes everything that follows.
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