But they also provided a Shiny Application that shows us some preliminary crosstabs of about 15 different demographics. You can access that with this link. So, here’s what I did: I just replicated anything in that Shiny app that pertains to religion with the data from the prior four elections from the CES.
For those who are wondering, I am using their “likely voter model” percentages for 2024, and in 2016 and 2020, I am using validated voter data. The 2008 and 2012 datasets did not have voter validation, so I am just showing you the normal survey weights.
Let’s start with a broad look at six religious categories, and this is the vote share for the Republican in the last five election cycles.
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