Catholics are moving away from President Trump.
In the latest Quinnipiac poll (which thankfully includes a set of questions about religion), 55% of Catholics say they will definitely not vote for Trump in 2020, as opposed to 32% who say they definitely will vote for him and 12% who say they'd consider it. Even if all those who are only considering voting for him end up in his corner, the resulting 55-44 margin would be a major blow to his reelection chances.
In 2016, Catholics voted for Trump over Hillary Clinton by 50% to 46%. Given that Catholics make up roughly a quarter of the electorate, the 15-point shift away from him would equate to nearly four percent of the entire popular vote.
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