Was Shakespeare Catholic?

Recent books and articles on the Catholic Shakespeare thesis—the long-circulating notion that the English language's greatest writer was a closet “Papist,” as his first biographer wrote not long after his death—have sought evidence in both his life and in his plays. Such an approach, however much speculative fruit it might bear, confronts a twofold challenge. First is the trap of circularity. For example, is the record of Recusancy (absence from the Anglican Lord's Supper) by Shakespeare's father John and daughter Susannah evidence of Catholic sympathies, or is that argument made only because Shakespeare's plays depict a number of Franciscan characters favorably? How certain can we be about what really comes first, the life or the work?