Recently, Ross Douthat raised some important questions about the future of evangelicalism in and after the Trump era. Douthat, who is Catholic, cites evangelicals Jared Wilson and Alan Jacobs in order to argue that Trump has forced a “crisis” in evangelicalism. His analysis is thoughtful and intriguing. But Douthat, Wilson, and Jacobs all seem to assume that evangelical support for Trump is a sign of heresy and hypocrisy. This assumption presumes a great deal about evangelical voting behavior in an increasingly fractured political culture. Elite observers should allow for the possibility that evangelical voters are capable of making a range of prudential judgments—which may not qualify as hypocrisy, even if they are out of step with elite opinion.
Douthat is right that Trump's candidacy exposed major fault lines among white evangelicals. These divisions reveal three groups, each distinguished by prudential political judgments. The groups are: Jacksonian Evangelicals, Tocquevillian Evangelicals, and elite Evangelicals.
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