Good Night, Blood Moon

 Prominent pastor John Hagee’s “blood moon prophecy,” the claim that eclipses track with significant events in the history of Israel, has gained coverage if not much credence in USA Today, the New York Daily News, and other outlets. There are political and religious responses that could be offered to his prophecy, but as an astronomer I had one question in mind: Do Hagee’s factual claims hold? The answer is no.

Hagee’s prophecy claims that “tetrads” (the occurrence of four total lunar eclipses over two years) which occur on Passover and Succot (P&S) coincide with significant events in the history of the Jewish people. To support this claim, Hagee says that P&S tetrads in 1493-94, 1949-50, and 1967-68 can be associated (within a year or two) with expulsion of Spanish Jews (1492), establishment of the state of Israel (1948), and Israel’s six-day war (1967).